At the centre:
Predicting the numbers this time will be very tough given the fragmentation of national parties, but I think it will be the UPA again. Not that the UPA will perform exceptionally better than the NDA – both are going to have very close numbers. The possibility of one of the parties emerging as the single largest party and the other alliance emerging as the single largest pre-poll alliance is also ripe. Either way, given the tendency of all smaller parties belonging to different “fronts” to practice political untouchability against the BJP, they will eventually end up supporting the Congress led UPA. Or they might just abstain from the confidence vote. It will remain advantage UPA then.
However, I think this time the coalition will not be as stable as the previous two regimes. We might as well see another election well before 2014!
In Andhra Pradesh:
A hung looks a very high possibility, but I still think the Congress has a bigger edge than all the other parties. A remote possibility of PRP supporting the Congress without YSR might happen, but other than that I do not see what will stop the Congress from coming back to power in the state. The Congress will be very close to the majority of 147 seats, or even possibly cross that. PRP will eat into the votes of both Congress and TDP, causing maximum damage to TDP. TDP led alliance might end up with 100-110 seats, Congress might end up with 130-140 seats with the rest going to the PRP. Lok Satta might win 1-2 seats, and BJP too will 1-2 seats.
I kept the predictions short, because it's just one more day for the results to come out and I didn't want to reel out whatever little analysis I did in my mind :-). Kept this short because I guess no election blog is complete without predictions :-) !
Predicting the numbers this time will be very tough given the fragmentation of national parties, but I think it will be the UPA again. Not that the UPA will perform exceptionally better than the NDA – both are going to have very close numbers. The possibility of one of the parties emerging as the single largest party and the other alliance emerging as the single largest pre-poll alliance is also ripe. Either way, given the tendency of all smaller parties belonging to different “fronts” to practice political untouchability against the BJP, they will eventually end up supporting the Congress led UPA. Or they might just abstain from the confidence vote. It will remain advantage UPA then.
However, I think this time the coalition will not be as stable as the previous two regimes. We might as well see another election well before 2014!
In Andhra Pradesh:
A hung looks a very high possibility, but I still think the Congress has a bigger edge than all the other parties. A remote possibility of PRP supporting the Congress without YSR might happen, but other than that I do not see what will stop the Congress from coming back to power in the state. The Congress will be very close to the majority of 147 seats, or even possibly cross that. PRP will eat into the votes of both Congress and TDP, causing maximum damage to TDP. TDP led alliance might end up with 100-110 seats, Congress might end up with 130-140 seats with the rest going to the PRP. Lok Satta might win 1-2 seats, and BJP too will 1-2 seats.
I kept the predictions short, because it's just one more day for the results to come out and I didn't want to reel out whatever little analysis I did in my mind :-). Kept this short because I guess no election blog is complete without predictions :-) !
I really hope you are wrong. I cannnot see congress for another term in the state and PRP being the king maker. I will be depressed of that happens.
ReplyDeleteYou were close but Congress did better than expected and PRP did much worse than expected. Do you plan to have a post analyzing the numbers?
ReplyDelete